## The Behind-the-Scenes of the CPI Data Controversy: What Is the Market's True "Signal"?

The October CPI data was withdrawn by the Labor Department, causing a significant stir in the financial circles. To understand why the market reacted so strongly, we must first grasp how deeply CPI data impacts asset pricing. Simply put: CPI data determines the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, which directly shape the trajectory of risk assets. When this "navigation chart" suddenly disappears, the entire market's pricing logic falls into brief disarray.

### What Does the Rare Historical Action Reveal

The last time the Labor Department took similar action was around 2003, making such situations quite uncommon. Historically, whenever the official decision to withdraw data for recalibration is made, it usually indicates that the initial data had significant deviations. The withdrawal of October's CPI data likely implies two possibilities: either the initial statistical results were abnormally low, or the volatility exceeded reasonable bounds.

Regardless of the scenario, the outcome often points in the same direction—the final inflation data will be more optimistic than market expectations. In the context of an increasing likelihood of rate cuts, this is undoubtedly a bullish signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

### The "Opportunity Window" for Institutional Rebalancing

From a capital flow perspective, the market is at a delicate timing juncture. Many institutional investors' Bitcoin accumulation plans may not yet be fully implemented. If the CPI data is re-released after the withdrawal and the results are as optimistic as expected, Bitcoin is likely to experience a relatively direct upward move. In this situation, some market participants might use this withdrawal period to adjust their positions—waiting for the data to be reissued to push the market higher again.

This logic suggests that the current phase has become a relatively moderate market environment, providing a window for participants to enter or increase their positions.

### The Actual Drivers of the Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $87.89K. When CPI data confirms that inflation continues to decline, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts will significantly increase. Under a loose policy environment, abundant liquidity will boost various risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This is not a baseless speculation but a logical chain based on the market operations over the past decade.

### What to Watch Next

The timing of the CPI data re-release will become the next market focus. Before that, investors are advised to remain calm and observant, avoiding being driven by short-term volatility. Participants who have already established positions can choose to hold quality assets and wait for the revised data to land. The market has indeed entered a relatively sensitive cycle, but this is also an opportune moment for rational deployment rather than blindly chasing gains.

When the CPI data is officially reissued, the market will then see a true confirmation of direction. At that point, a reassessment based on inflation expectations could trigger a more substantial rally in cryptocurrencies.