Who can explain this round of operations to me? The Federal Reserve has been messing around with rate cut expectations for more than half a year. After three rounds, the market didn't rise sharply as expected; instead, it plunged rapidly. This situation of "good news leading to sell-off" has really shaken the confidence of many bottom-fishers.

After eight years of market observation, my conclusion is straightforward: don't overly rely on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance. The complexity of the crypto market far exceeds most people's imagination. This decline may seem sudden, but there are two underlying logical threads that are hard to ignore.

First, let's dispel a common misconception. Rate cuts are usually understood as a signal of "liquidity easing," but in reality, they are more like a "market sentiment adjustment tool." During the first two rounds of rate cuts, market participants had already digested the expectations, and a large amount of capital had preemptively positioned themselves to seize gains. When the third rate cut was finally implemented, these early movers immediately chose to take profits. It's like you've been looking forward to a concert for half a year, and when it finally starts, you realize things aren't that simple—naturally, you consider leaving.

A more realistic constraint is that US inflation data remains sticky, and the room for the federal funds rate to decrease is clearly limited. Without a continuous inflow of incremental funds, it's difficult for the market to sustain upward momentum. This is the most basic market logic.

Interestingly, when the Fed's policy dividends fail to sufficiently motivate the market, another important source of liquidity—the policy effects of the Bank of Japan—continues to play a role. Japan has experienced nearly thirty years of zero interest rate environment, with the central bank pushing funding costs close to zero, and even depositors paying fees to keep money in banks. This extremely loose monetary environment has generated a large amount of international capital seeking yields. According to institutional data, the total liquidity released by the Bank of Japan over the past thirty-plus years has become one of the major sources of funds for the global crypto market.

The performance of ETH and the entire crypto market largely depends on the rhythm of these macro liquidity changes, rather than on one or two policy adjustments by a single central bank.