Prediction market traders on Polymarket are pricing in only a 66% probability that those files get released by December 19th—the deadline that's been publicly committed to. Quite the disconnect between the commitment and what the betting markets are actually expecting. Interesting to see how prediction markets reflect skepticism even when timelines are set in stone.
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Prediction market traders on Polymarket are pricing in only a 66% probability that those files get released by December 19th—the deadline that's been publicly committed to. Quite the disconnect between the commitment and what the betting markets are actually expecting. Interesting to see how prediction markets reflect skepticism even when timelines are set in stone.