Last night, when the non-farm payroll data was released, the market was torn apart.

On the surface, it looks "strong": 119,000 new jobs added, a decent number. But a deeper look reveals problems—unemployment rate suddenly jumped to 4.44%, the highest in nearly three years. Moreover, the previous figure was significantly revised downward. The true employment foundation isn't as solid as it seems.

A large portion of the new jobs are part-time positions just to fill the scene, while the number of involuntary unemployed has surged dramatically. This combination of data directly exposes the Federal Reserve's "employment risk" weakness.

Inside the Fed, there is already heated debate. There are three dissenting votes at the December policy meeting, with hawkish and dovish stances becoming increasingly opposed. Powell is likely to be forced to press the "pause on rate cuts" in January, but market liquidity expectations are still simmering. Between easing and tightening, both bulls and bears have reasons to move.

Speaking of BTC, the current situation is like this: after experiencing a sharp drop of 4,000 points, the 85,000 level has become a battleground for bulls and bears.

From a technical perspective, the daily RSI remains weak, and warning signals haven't been lifted. If 85,000 is broken, the next support level to watch is 82,000. Conversely, if it holds above 85,000, the rebound target points to 88,000. But be cautious of the Bank of Japan possibly stirring the pot again; once arbitrage funds withdraw, the risk of chain reactions and stampedes is significant.

Next, there are two things to watch: Can BTC leverage easing expectations to rebound and hold 85,000? Will the Federal Reserve really pause rate cuts in January? These two questions will determine the rhythm of the subsequent market.

The market swings amid these uncertainties, but opportunities often emerge from disagreements. Are you thinking like a bull or a bear right now?