Yesterday, the market was flooded with headlines like "Yen rate hike triggers sell-off," which once made people think BTC might drop back to 30,000. But I've been in this space for 8 years, experienced 3 bull and bear cycles, and want to clarify the issue—so-called "interest rate storms" are mostly exaggerated; don't be swayed by public opinion.

Let's first clarify the current situation. The Federal Reserve just finished a rate cut last month, lowering rates by 25 basis points, signaling liquidity to the market. Meanwhile, Japan's interest rate meeting this week has been portrayed as a "critical moment." The reason is simple: over the past decade, the yen has been the cheapest financing tool globally. Investors use low-interest yen as principal to buy high-yield crypto assets or stocks, earning a carry trade. If Japan raises rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, some of these investors will face higher costs and may need to sell assets to pay down debt.

But there's a key misconception—raising rates doesn't necessarily mean a massive capital flight; it depends on the interest rate differential and market expectations. To put it another way, even if Japan actually raises rates to 0.75%, the US interest rate remains between 3.5% and 3.75%, so the yen remains relatively "cheap" compared to the dollar. More importantly, the market has already priced in the likelihood of this rate hike. According to overnight index swap data, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates this week is already priced at 94%. If a storm were truly coming, BTC should have dropped from the 90,000 level last week, not still be oscillating there. It should have already broken below 80,000.

From another perspective, what do these two events together really mean? We need to analyze calmly.