Japan's rate hike is not essentially about interest rate changes, but about the tightening of the global "source of cheap funds."
To simplify, focusing on three points is enough:
First, the yen is a global carry trade currency. For a long time, funds borrow in yen and invest in global assets. When Japan raises interest rates, the cost of carry increases, and funds will flow back.
Second, rate hikes = carry trade unwinding = pressure on risk assets. The first to sell off are high-valuation assets, followed by emerging markets. Volatility is significantly amplified, but a collapse is not necessarily immediate.
Third, the impact is a "liquidity retreat," not an economic collapse. Stock market volatility intensifies, defensive assets become relatively favored, and the value of cash and dividend-paying assets rises.
Impact of Japan's rate hike on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks
Impact sequence: US stocks → Hong Kong stocks → A-shares Degree of pressure: Hong Kong stocks are most sensitive (high foreign capital proportion), A-shares are the least reactive (low foreign capital proportion)
A-shares are not necessarily crashing More likely to see: Decreased trading volume Shift to defensive styles More extreme structural market conditions
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Japan's rate hike is not essentially about interest rate changes, but about the tightening of the global "source of cheap funds."
To simplify, focusing on three points is enough:
First, the yen is a global carry trade currency.
For a long time, funds borrow in yen and invest in global assets. When Japan raises interest rates, the cost of carry increases, and funds will flow back.
Second, rate hikes = carry trade unwinding = pressure on risk assets.
The first to sell off are high-valuation assets, followed by emerging markets. Volatility is significantly amplified, but a collapse is not necessarily immediate.
Third, the impact is a "liquidity retreat," not an economic collapse.
Stock market volatility intensifies, defensive assets become relatively favored, and the value of cash and dividend-paying assets rises.
Impact of Japan's rate hike on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks
Impact sequence: US stocks → Hong Kong stocks → A-shares
Degree of pressure: Hong Kong stocks are most sensitive (high foreign capital proportion), A-shares are the least reactive (low foreign capital proportion)
A-shares are not necessarily crashing
More likely to see:
Decreased trading volume
Shift to defensive styles
More extreme structural market conditions