Grayscale recently released its 2026 outlook, with the core judgment that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in the first half of next year. They provided three supporting reasons: the proportion of crypto assets in American household asset allocation is still less than 0.5%, and as the policy environment improves, more traditional funds will be attracted; the US dollar remains under long-term pressure during the easing cycle, and Bitcoin is expected to absorb some of the safe-haven and hedging demand; the 20.1 millionth Bitcoin is expected to be mined in March, and the scarcity narrative is heating up again. These reasons sound logically consistent, but my first reaction after reading them was to pull up the performance record of institutional calls over the years.

And what was the result? Standard Chartered once predicted $250,000, Bitwise called for $200,000, VanEck gave $180,000, and JPMorgan also mentioned figures like $160,000. By 2025, none of these predictions have come true; they all failed spectacularly. You have to wonder how embarrassing that is.

This is the core issue—institutional outlooks are more like emotional references and narrative material libraries, useful for understanding market consensus and public opinion background. But if you really treat them as trading signals, the risk is actually greatest. Predictions sound good but are hard to execute. Remember this, so you can avoid detours later.