#大户持仓变化 Bitcoin Market Watch: Rebound Momentum vs Potential Risks

In the past 24 hours, BTC has increased by 2.9%, currently trading at $87,863.43. Can this rebound continue? Market opinions vary widely.

**Reasons for the Bulls**

Institutions are continuously entering. Grayscale and other major asset managers are optimistic, expecting Bitcoin to potentially hit new all-time highs in the first half of 2026. The main driver is the gradual clarification of the US regulatory environment. Meanwhile, US Bitcoin companies and MicroStrategy have been quietly accumulating over the past two years. US Bitcoin companies have even ranked among the top 20 global public holders, which supports a long-term bullish outlook.

MetaMask is also making efforts—they added native BTC functionality for 30 million users, undoubtedly lowering the barrier to Bitcoin usage and possibly sparking a new wave of trading enthusiasm.

**But Risks Are Accumulating**

The Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike on December 19 to 0.75% cannot be ignored. Historical experience shows that yen carry trades often trigger sharp declines in Bitcoin, typically between 23% and 31%. Notably, on November 20, US Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $582 million in a single day, a recent high, indicating that institutional sentiment may be shifting.

Even more concerning is that since December, long-term holders have been selling off more aggressively—net outflows have surged over 130% in two weeks. This selling pressure could drag down prices.

**Community Perspective**

Currently, market participants are generally feeling tense—macroeconomic uncertainties, central bank policies, and historical patterns are all exerting pressure. However, some see the pullback as a buying opportunity at lower levels. Whether the 87,000 level is the start of a rebound or a short-term high will depend on the next few days’ performance.

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