On the 11th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. However, the dot plot indicates that in 2026, there may only be one rate cut, far below the market expectation of 2-3 cuts.

The market wants "continuous liquidity injection," but Powell is offering a "symbolic rate cut + future tightening."

What’s more concerning is that among the 12 voting members, 3 oppose the rate cut, with 2 advocating for no change. This shows that the Fed’s internal vigilance against inflation exceeds market expectations.

Rate cuts should have released liquidity, but hawkish signals are preemptively locking in future rate cut space. The market reacted very directly—US stocks fell, BTC fell, and all risk assets declined.

This is the first major blow: rate cuts were made, but liquidity expectations have actually tightened.