Recently, there has been an interesting contradictory phenomenon in the non-farm payroll data. The addition of 64,000 jobs in November indeed exceeded expectations, but at the same time, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%. More importantly, the data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward—August and September combined were reduced by 33,000, and October was directly revised down by 105,000. This kind of contrast is a bit like the volatility in the crypto market, leaving people puzzled about what the Federal Reserve is really thinking.

Market reactions have been consistent. After the data was released, major institutions quickly adjusted their expectations for rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in January was immediately pushed to 31%, while expectations for two rate cuts in 2026, totaling 58 basis points of easing, remained unchanged. This indicates that although employment data is somewhat chaotic, the market believes the long-term easing trend is still intact.

The fiscal side is also cooperating. The Treasury Secretary recently softened their stance on the Federal Reserve, hinting that inflation will significantly decline next year, and is preparing to launch a large-scale tax rebate plan—each household receiving between $1,000 and $2,000. This is essentially turning up the liquidity faucet.

Changes can also be felt in capital flows. Gold prices instantly surged by $10, the US dollar index started to weaken, and idle funds in the market are searching for new outlets. Interestingly, Tether recently invested $8 million in Bitcoin Lightning Network payments. The signal behind this move is very clear—it’s laying the groundwork for the next round of capital inflows, showing confidence in cryptocurrencies as a safe-haven asset.

The current situation is somewhat delicate. On one hand, there are chaotic signals from employment data; on the other hand, expectations for macroeconomic easing are continuously being released. The crypto market is caught in the middle, with both risks and opportunities.

It’s worth pondering: Is this just a false signal after good news has been priced in, or is it really just the prelude to a easing cycle? Can Bitcoin ride this wave of liquidity to break through previous highs, or does it need to adjust first before launching? Will the Federal Reserve really start cutting rates as scheduled in January? The answers to these questions could determine the future direction of the crypto market.