#BinanceABCs Double risks stacking up, be cautious in the next 48 hours.

This Friday is the triple witching day. A rare occurrence happening four times a year, when options and futures expire simultaneously, leading to a surge in trading volume and inevitable volatility. The market is like a stirred-up pond; calmness simply doesn't exist, and emotions are easily triggered.

But what really needs attention is the Bank of Japan. The rate decision on Thursday is the key. The market has already digested some of the expectations of a rate hike, as the recent decline has priced in that possibility. Not only Bitcoin is affected, but the Nikkei index also plunged overnight. Everyone is asking the same question: Will yen carry trades be forced to close, triggering a chain reaction like in July and August 2024?

Japan's long-term interest rates have remained near zero, making the yen the easiest currency to borrow globally. Funds borrow yen, convert to USD to buy the dip in US stocks, tech stocks, or even volatile assets like $BTC — this is the full play of yen carry trades. It sounds perfect, but there's a critical precondition: the yen must continue to depreciate.

What if the yen starts appreciating? The cost of borrowing suddenly rises. Those who find leverage profitable will see their positions turn into hot potatoes instantly. The only way out: close the positions quickly, pay back the loans, and exit. The problem is, they won't be selling yen, but rather those high-volatility, high-risk assets they hold. This kind of selling is like a dam breaking — a chain reaction that can't be stopped.

So in the coming days, two forces should be watched simultaneously: first, the technical volatility of triple witching — purely trading impacts; second, the potential impact of the Bank of Japan's policy shift on global risk assets. In the short term, with such high uncertainty, market turbulence is unavoidable.

The advice remains the same old rule: control your positions, manage risks carefully. Volatility is indeed high, but rushing in often results in the move that gets you eaten.