#大户持仓变化 The gold market has been quite volatile recently. In mid-December, gold prices surged first, then were hammered down, briefly breaking through $4,300 before immediately pulling back, finally settling around $4,307. Domestic jewelry brands like Chow Sang Sang also adjusted their prices, dropping from high levels to 1,349 RMB per gram. Chow Tai Fook and other major brands have temporarily stabilized.

Regarding the 2025 gold price outlook, it’s indeed quite aggressive. From breaking $3,000 at the start of the year, surpassing $4,000 mid-year, to an increase of over 60% this year, such a bull market is rare. Goldman Sachs expects it to reach $4,900 by the end of next year, and institutions like Bank of America even see $5,000. The main driving forces behind this are: continuous central bank purchases worldwide (the People's Bank of China has been increasing holdings for 13 consecutive months), steady inflows into gold ETFs reaching new highs, and rising demand for safe-haven assets and asset allocation.

Looking deeper, the logic behind the rising gold prices is quite clear. On one hand, U.S. debt is piling up, policy uncertainties abound, and the dollar’s credibility is weakening. Under the trend of de-dollarization, gold’s strategic importance is increasing. On the other hand, instability in the Middle East and geopolitical conflicts have boosted safe-haven demand. Plus, with bubble risks emerging in the AI sector, institutions are starting to use gold as a hedging tool.

In the short term, gold prices may fluctuate within the $4,200-$4,500 range. Whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates is a key factor. If geopolitical tensions ease, inflation stabilizes or rate cut plans are delayed, combined with some profit-taking pressure, gold could see a more noticeable correction.