As the year comes to an end, predictions about Bitcoin's 2026 market trend have become particularly noisy. Institutions and industry influencers hold diverse opinions—some betting on new highs, others warning of potential crashes—whose logic is more convincing?

**Bullish Camp Opinions**

Major bank Standard Chartered has set a target of $150,000, halving its previous estimate of $300,000, but the reasoning still points to continuous institutional capital inflows. Ripple CEO is more aggressive, aiming for $180,000, citing the gradually clarifying US regulatory framework and the start of real institutional allocations. Korbit's research team estimates a range of $140,000 to $170,000, betting on ongoing liquidity from fiscal reform policies.

Analyst Murad predicts a range of $150,000 to $200,000, claiming the bull market cycle could last over four years, with institutional confidence supported by solid ETF inflow data. Bitwise's CIO is even more certain—asserting new all-time highs are assured, citing weakening market cycle patterns, decreasing volatility, and accelerated institutional deployment. Grayscale shares a similar view, expecting new highs in the first half of 2026 due to rising regulatory transparency, inflation hedging demand, and institutions becoming market leaders.

**But Some Are Cautious**

Macro analyst Luke Gromen's forecast is stark—$40,000. His reasoning is: in the first half of 2026, risk assets may face overall pressure, Bitcoin's technical structure has potential for breakdown, and long-term risks like quantum computing are looming. He favors gold as a safe haven in comparison.

**Key Factors That Will Decide the Trend**

ETF capital flow rhythm is the decisive factor for the mid-term market, indicating how high institutional allocations can push prices. The progress of regulatory legislation like the "Clear Act" directly impacts market risk appetite. The Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy and economic cycle judgments influence the ceiling of risk assets. Additionally, the effect of the 2024 halving is diminishing, and past cyclical patterns may no longer be as rigid.

Which camp's logic do you lean towards?