Looking at the unemployment rate data trend over the past six months, the overall trend is indeed a bit tense. Although there was a brief adjustment in July, since September it hasn't really stopped, and in October it jumped directly to 4.5%.

According to the model projection, as long as the unemployment rate next month rises above 4.6%, the Sam Rule's 0.5% threshold will be triggered. This indicator has historically been almost 100% accurate as a recession signal, with very few exceptions.

What does this mean for the crypto market? In the short term, the enthusiasm for AI has become somewhat dull, and the US stock market also lacks new growth stories. The market's focus will then be closely watching CPI data, as it determines the subsequent direction:

One scenario is that CPI meets expectations, but the unemployment rate continues to explode upward. This would confirm that a recession is coming, and the Federal Reserve would be forced to intervene, with liquidity expectations favoring crypto assets, especially safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.

The other, worse scenario is that CPI remains hot while unemployment also rises. This would lead to the infamous stagflation mode, with the Fed caught in a dilemma—daring not to cut interest rates sharply (for fear of runaway inflation), but unable to sit and wait. In this environment, risk assets will face a severe re-pricing, and the crypto market could be among the first to be affected.