Recently, the US unemployment rate data was released, and the 4.6% result directly broke market expectations—analysts had generally anticipated 4.4%. What signals are hidden behind this discrepancy? Simply put, the US labor market is softening.

Employment data is undoubtedly a barometer of the economy. What does it mean when the unemployment rate rises? Workers' job security is less stable, and they may need to be more cautious with their spending. When consumption weakens, the momentum for economic growth naturally diminishes.

For the Federal Reserve, this becomes a difficult problem. Previously, they relied on tightening policies to combat inflation, but now that employment is showing signs of trouble, the logic for policy shifts no longer holds. Once the unemployment rate surpasses a level acceptable to the market, maintaining growth and employment must become the primary focus of monetary policy.

From this perspective, the Federal Reserve is likely to ease its policies in 2026—possibly by starting rate cuts earlier or by directly implementing measures like balance sheet expansion. The market's reaction to this expectation has already been quite clear. For risk assets like BTC and ETH, a loose monetary environment has always been a positive factor. Valuation logic will therefore adjust accordingly, and the impact of this round of changes could be more profound than expected.