#加密生态动态追踪 $ETH $BTC $ASTER

🔥Non-farm payrolls arrive strongly, the Bank of Japan stirs undercurrents, and the crypto world faces a dual test

Yesterday’s non-farm payroll data caught the market off guard. The number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained low, directly shattering the market’s optimistic hopes that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in March next year. Investor confidence in rate cuts instantly cooled, which was most directly reflected in Bitcoin dropping below the $88,000 mark, with altcoins suffering even more embarrassing declines.

But that’s not the whole story. The signals coming from the East might be the real turning point. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates to 0.75% on December 19, marking the first significant "rate hike" in Japan in over 30 years.

🚨The key lies in the invisible link between two factors — carry trade. Over the past thirty years, due to the long-term ultra-low interest rates in Japan, global speculative funds have borrowed大量日元, then leveraged to buy US bonds, US stocks, and even cryptocurrencies. The total amount of this money could be as high as 4 trillion to 20 trillion USD. Once Japan begins to raise rates, the cost of borrowing in yen will spike immediately. These arbitrage funds will first think of flowing back into Japan to "fill the gap," making cryptocurrencies naturally the easiest assets to shed.

The future direction of the crypto market depends on how these two forces compete: on one side, the "high interest rate expectations" behind the non-farm data; on the other, the "liquidity tightening" that Japan’s rate hike might cause. If these two forces resonate and amplify each other, Bitcoin could test the $80,000 support level; but if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance to "hedge," there’s still a chance for the crypto market to stabilize.

Regardless, this liquidity shift triggered jointly by non-farm payrolls and the Bank of Japan’s decision has already left the market hanging. The true answer will depend on how the Fed responds in subsequent statements.