#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 The Bank of Japan is about to make a big move; tomorrow's interest rate decision could rewrite nearly 20 years of history.

Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, and everyone in the industry is holding their breath. It’s almost a certainty—the first rate hike in 20 years, marking the end of the negative interest rate era.

But the real focus this time isn’t whether they will raise rates or not; it’s about what kind of future doors this decision will open.

Once the rate hike is confirmed, the Bank of Japan will definitely initiate a long-term, gradual rate increase process. The path forward depends on two critical variables:

**Can wages continue to grow?** This determines whether a positive "wages → inflation" cycle can form. If it stalls, the momentum for rate hikes will be strong.

**What’s happening in the U.S.?** The threat of tariffs and trade barriers looms overhead, creating significant policy uncertainty. This will directly constrain the BOJ’s actions.

Rough estimates suggest that by around 2027, the BOJ may have up to three more rate hikes in the pipeline, ultimately pushing the policy rate toward a neutral level of around 1.5%. During this period, the market will remain cautious but not completely hesitant.