#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 December 17 Midday Market Analysis Overview

Bitcoin Price Breakdown

Recent performance of Bitcoin is quite interesting. If it can volume-break and close above the 87783 hourly resistance, then it’s time to confidently go long on the right side, remember to set a stop loss. Conversely, if the price drops below 87321 with volume and cannot recover on a rebound, a short opportunity on the right side emerges, but caution is needed to set a stop loss—keep an eye on volume changes at all times.

When the pullback bottoms near 86533, and signs of a false breakout are obvious, consider adding a long position. If the false breakout low or a true break below 85605 occurs, exit immediately; don’t hold on if the recovery signals are absent.

Looking upward, if Bitcoin can stabilize above 88018 on the hourly chart, the upward target ranges from 88483 to 89212. Breaking 88018 is a necessary condition for continued upward movement. Short-sellers should be aware of the potential 2B false breakout at 89212; at that point, go short with one hand, but if it breaks and stabilizes above 90051, exit to stop losses.

Conservative traders might wait until the price reaches 85000 before entering a long position, with a stop loss at 84102. It’s important to recognize that although Bitcoin has broken out of the bearish flag pattern, the closing price has not truly surpassed the resistance at 88188. If the pullback re-enters the flag pattern without breaking below the neckline at 86587, there’s still room for relief. But once the neckline is broken, it’s likely to revisit the previous low at 85073. To sustain an upward trend, the price must clear 88188 to target 88379-90036; otherwise, the breakout is futile.

This is a common logic in pullback rebounds—if resistance above cannot be broken, the market will test support below a second time. If support holds, it will consolidate; if not, it will continue downward. Focus on the three resistance levels at 88018, 88483, and 89212, and the support levels at 87072, 86587, and 85627. On the 4-hour chart, if 87186 breaks downward, look toward 86565-85570.

Ethereum Short-term Strategy

Ethereum’s recent performance also requires careful attention. When volume-breaks above 2959, go long on the right side, and close the position if a pullback occurs. If it volume-breaks below 2935, then go short on the right side, with a serious stop loss.

If the price retests and confirms support at 2914, consider adding a long position, but if it breaks below 2884, accept the loss. On the hourly chart, if Ethereum stabilizes above 2962, it can target 2994-3018. Watch the 3018 level closely, as it may become a short entry point; go short there, but if it breaks above 3059, exit.

Long positions on the left side can be taken at 2852, with a stop loss at 2812. Technically, resistance is concentrated at 2962, 2994, and 3018, while support levels are at 2915, 2871, and 2836. If 2911 on the 4-hour chart breaks downward, look toward 2872-2824. Honestly, it’s already good that Ethereum has maintained within the range and oscillated; the real opportunity will come when it breaks out of the range, following the direction indicated by the yellow arrow on the right. The key support at the lower boundary of the range is 2911; breaking below that means a move down. Remember this—once a trend is established, it’s hard to change easily. Today’s market indeed lacks trading opportunities, so it’s better to stay on the sidelines.