November Non-Farm Payrolls just came out, with job growth of 64,000 exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate actually rose to 4.6%—the highest since September 2021. At first glance, it seems contradictory, but a closer look reveals a classic "data trap."

**Why are there more jobs but also higher unemployment?**

The issue lies in the different "counting methods" used for two sets of data. The employer survey counts jobs—if you work as a bank employee during the day and drive for a ride-hailing service at night, that's two jobs. As a result, the number of people working part-time due to rising living costs surged by 910,000 in November. The job numbers look impressive, but in reality, it's the same group of people working multiple jobs.

The household survey counts people—regardless of how many jobs they hold, it's just one person. Recent graduates, new immigrants, and job seekers who have been laid off struggle to find suitable positions, causing the unemployment rate to rise naturally.

**The awkward gap between supply and demand**

The U.S. labor market needs 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate stable, and 64,000 is far from enough. There are too many new job seekers entering the market, and the number of new jobs added is insufficient.

Even more painfully, the distribution of new jobs is highly uneven. The healthcare sector added 46,000 jobs, construction added 28,000, while other industries mostly saw job reductions—logistics lost 18,000, and government sectors decreased by 6,000. In other words, opportunities for doctors and engineers are plentiful, but job seekers in other industries still have to compete fiercely.

**The cold reality behind surface-level good news**

At first glance, exceeding job expectations seems positive, but the deeper logic is that the employment market is cooling down, and ordinary people's lives are tightening. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a dovish stance, and the cycle of rate cuts won't accelerate quickly. For the crypto world, this means liquidity conditions will have short-term support. However, risks are accumulating—rising unemployment, consumer pressure, and the constant threat of an economic recession lurking behind the scenes.

Diversifying skills and spreading risk are the survival rules of this era.