Recently, I've been pondering a question: Is there really a causal relationship between Japan's interest rate hikes and Bitcoin market movements?

Looking back at the data from the past year, it's quite interesting—

After the March 2024 rate hike, Bitcoin dropped by 23%. Another hike in July expanded the decline to 26%. Then in January 2025, Japan took action again, and Bitcoin fell even more sharply, with a 31% drop.

Three rate hikes, three declines. Coincidence or pattern?

What does Japan's rate hike mean? Simply put, it indicates a strengthening dollar, a shift in arbitrage trading sentiment, and a decrease in the attractiveness of risk assets. As a high-risk asset, Bitcoin is under pressure in this macro environment shift. Global liquidity tightening hits the crypto market first.

Now there are rumors of a possible fourth rate hike on December 19. If history repeats, should we prepare psychologically for potential price adjustments?

Of course, the market will never follow the exact script of history, but understanding this macro logic is better than blindly trading. What do you think?