Last week, the US November non-farm payroll report was released, and the data was considered "disappointing"—only 64,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate jumped directly to 4.6%. Logically, this should be a clear bearish signal, but the market's reaction was completely opposite: gold surged all the way to 4280, and various assets also started to stir.

What exactly is going on?

To put it simply, the market's logic has changed. In the past, good economic data was bullish, and bad data was bearish. Now? Bad data is interpreted as—The Federal Reserve needs to loosen monetary policy. There is solid support behind this shift: last week, the Fed indeed took action—cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated the so-called "technical balance sheet expansion" operation. In other words, the liquidity gate is opening.

But don’t think too simply. Divisions within the Federal Reserve have reached a five-year high, and inflationary pressures still loom overhead, meaning policies won't be implemented all at once. The likely next phase is a "shock upward" process, with the market oscillating back and forth between confirmation and re-confirmation.

The most crucial change is this: we have shifted from a passive market that "reads data for cues" to an active market that "bets on policy expectations." The traditional bull-bear judgment framework has already become ineffective under this logic.

Gold took the lead and moved ahead, with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin also gathering momentum. The real driving force behind this rally is less about how good the economy actually is, and more about how strong liquidity expectations are. Funds will flow where opportunities are.