Last night's US non-farm payroll data was released, generally considered positive. However, since the interest rate cut policy was just implemented recently, the market's reaction to this good news hasn't been very enthusiastic.

Next, the expectation of rate hikes in Japan may become a temporary suppressor, and there could be some negative events happening in the coming days. Friends holding long positions should be cautious.

But here’s the question—what happens after the negative news is realized? Whether it can turn into a positive is hard to predict. From a big-picture perspective, the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cut cycle is already a certainty, and stopping balance sheet reduction means market liquidity will gradually be released, which sounds like a bullish signal. But history shows that each Fed rate-cut cycle is often accompanied by a bear market. This paradox is right here.

Honestly, no one can predict the market direction with 100% certainty. Those who are truly good at trading rely on adaptability—making dynamic judgments based on the constantly emerging market information, rather than fixating on a single indicator and rigidly seeking a solution. When the market is in this ambiguous state, the smartest approach is to wait for the market to find its own direction.

A reminder: the overall environment is still in a bear market cycle, and this is a prerequisite.