Last night, when the US non-farm payroll data was released, the unemployment rate skyrocketed to 4.6%, hitting a new high in history. Although the employment data was slightly better than expected, this time the unemployment rate's performance was enough to make the market tremble. A wave of selling followed.

Why do many people place such importance on unemployment data? Simply put, the unemployment rate is not only a thermometer of the economy but also a signal of pressure. Once the labor market begins to weaken, the Federal Reserve's focus shifts from strictly monitoring inflation to protecting economic growth and preventing recession spread.

Looking back at the past 15 years reveals a pattern—every time the unemployment rate breaks through the trend line, the Federal Reserve's subsequent moves are: interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, and a shift in forward guidance toward easing. These changes do not immediately boost the market in the short term; instead, the market often leverages first. But once liquidity expectations bottom out, Bitcoin usually enters the next rally. This time is no exception.