Over the past two years, I have experienced three Japanese rate hike shocks, resulting in a total account loss of 14 million. This "tuition fee" transformed me from an aggressive heavy holder into a cautious risk management advocate.

The first rate hike occurred from late July to early August last year, when a major exchange's long positions of 600,000 USDT and 420,000 USDT were directly blown out, and a trading platform's 300,000 USDT long position was not spared either. At that time, my account funds were ample, and my positions were heavy. I didn't monitor the market closely and traveled around without regard for these losses—after all, the principal invested in 2022 had been fully withdrawn by October 2023. Later, just before Trump took office, I bottomed out around 65,850 and held the position until it broke 100,000 to take profit, gradually recovering the losses from August.

The real blow came from the second rate hike in early February this year. When the rate hike was announced at the end of January, everything was calm, and I didn't take it seriously. Unexpectedly, on the morning of February 3, the market suddenly plunged, and as soon as I landed in Bangkok, I saw the nightmare—ETH plummeted nearly a thousand points from 2100 down to around 2080, and long positions of over 70 ETH were instantly wiped out. Long positions worth hundreds of thousands of USDT in BTC and SOL were also forcibly liquidated, and the entire market was bloodshed. From February to April, I relied on short positions to slowly recover.

After April, various misfortunes followed one after another. I temporarily followed conservative advice, planning to respond modestly in 2025 and look for opportunities again in 2026. So, in the second half of the year, I hardly participated with any funds.

The heavy blow from these two rate hikes taught me a painful lesson: risk management is far more valuable than aggressive gains. Before this, I never reviewed my trades; I would chase longs whenever the market rose unilaterally. This tuition was indeed costly. Now, facing the third Japanese rate hike, I started preparing more than a month in advance. My strategy this time is completely different—first, to prepare for large capital surges, and at the same time, to defend my sensitive positions.

These three rate hikes have made me realize one thing: not all rises are worth chasing, and not all declines can be endured. True experts are not those who earn the most, but those who survive the longest.