#数字资产市场洞察 Risks of U.S. Debt and Stablecoin Concerns

There's a question I've been pondering—are U.S. Treasuries really safe?

Assuming U.S. Treasuries are fine, what about stablecoins pegged to them? Would they also be safe?

I think there might be a deeper logic behind this.

Look, U.S. Treasuries directly reflect national credit—it's a face issue. Defaulting outright isn't an option. But what if we think differently? Design a stablecoin that transfers the risk of U.S. debt into the crypto financial market—doesn't that sound a bit genius?

The general idea might be like this:

First, an oversupply of government bonds. When the market panics, U.S. Treasuries plummet—from $90 down to $80, $70. At this point, stablecoin issuers like Circle say: I have overallocated in U.S. debt, with an unrealized loss of 80%. Retail investors start to panic and withdraw. The stablecoin's value instantly crashes from $1—dropping to 0.2, 0.1, 0.00X.

Then, the government steps in: U.S. debt actually isn't a problem; this is just market behavior. The U.S. Treasury is injecting liquidity to buy back the debt.

Circle collapses. The government is willing to 'step in when necessary to help.' U.S. debt is sold off cheaply at $30. Large-scale repurchases follow. The price recovers to $50, $70, $90, $100.

A perfect closed loop. The name is established, and profits are collected.

Circle goes bankrupt, USDC is canceled. Then a new project called USDB is launched. If one day USDX becomes the next Luna, don't be surprised—these stablecoins are essentially policy tools, just leverage for market sentiment regulation.

By then, many will realize: the so-called innovative financial legislation is just an amplified arbitrage system, and the crypto market has become the best testing ground.

These are all speculations, but they are worth being cautious about.