The latest US employment data has been released, and on the surface, it looks lively—adding 64,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate has actually risen to 4.6%. What hidden clues are behind this?

To put it simply, this is a "job competition" battle. Companies say jobs are increasing, but household surveys show the unemployed population has actually grown, and the two survey results are at odds. The key point is that the newly created jobs are not enough to fill the gap.

How painful is the reality? The number of people working multiple jobs has surged by 910,000. Living costs have long squeezed workers to the point of breathlessness; working during the day and doing gig work at night has become the new normal. This is not enthusiasm; it’s helplessness.

A closer look at job distribution makes it clearer. The healthcare sector added 46,000 jobs, and construction increased by 28,000—these industries are rock solid. However, logistics cut 18,000 jobs, and government downsized by 6,000. Doctors and construction workers are in high demand, while white-collar and blue-collar workers are both facing intense competition.

It takes 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs each month to stabilize the situation, but in November, only 64,000 were added. New graduates and immigrants continue to pour in, and those laid off are also looking for work, making competition fiercer.

This is not an overheated economy; it’s a structural cooling. Although employment still looks decent, job quality is declining. For the Federal Reserve, this "divided data" provides a reason to cut interest rates— the economy isn’t that strong, and room for liquidity tightening is limited.

The signal to the crypto market is clear: a cooling labor market means the Fed won’t rush to tighten liquidity, and risk assets will continue to be supported. Historically, 2019 followed a similar path—economic data weakened, expectations of rate cuts increased, and Bitcoin and other risk assets took turns rising. Once easing expectations take shape, the market’s fuel won’t run out.

Crypto markets love this kind of expectation. Although there are economic concerns, the formation of a rate-cut cycle is clearly positive for risk assets.