U.S. November Non-Farm Payrolls Show Stronger External Weakness: Job Gains Exceed Expectations but Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.6% (Four-Year High), Market Still Bets on Two Rate Cuts in 2026; Federal Reserve Policy Decisions Will Focus on the December Non-Farm Report Released in Early January 2026; Bitcoin Rebounds to Around 87,000, Short-term Caution Needed for a Pullback to the 80,000 Level or Even Touching the 70,000 Range.

1. Non-Farm Data: Surface Exceeds Expectations, Internal Concerns Highlighted

In November, U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 jobs, outperforming market expectations. However, the core issue lies in the unexpectedly rising unemployment rate—reaching 4.6%, a four-year high—reflecting insufficient internal resilience in the labor market. Notably, October employment figures were revised downward by 105,000, mainly due to the impact of the Trump administration's "Deferred Resignation" plan: over 150,000 federal employees were removed from payroll statistics, causing significant statistical distortions in the non-farm data for October-November, limiting its actual reference value.

2. Policy and Market Expectations: No Change in Rate Cut Logic, Fed Focuses on Subsequent Data

After the data release, the market's pricing for two Fed rate cuts in 2026 remained unchanged, indicating that the market has already priced in the "distortions" of the current employment data. On the policy front, the Federal Reserve's attention to this non-farm report is limited, and it prefers to wait for the December non-farm report (to be released in early January 2026)—which will be free from the previous government shutdown interference and will serve as the core basis for the Fed to assess the true state of the employment market and formulate the next monetary policy steps.

3. Cryptocurrency Market: Weak Rebound, Short-term Correction Risks Persist

Following the release of the non-farm data and the marginal easing of market sentiment, major cryptocurrencies stabilized and rebounded, with Bitcoin rising to around 87,000. However, caution is needed as market sentiment has not yet stabilized, and there is a lack of clear positive catalysts to support a trend-based rally. If no additional positive news emerges, Bitcoin may test the support at the 80,000 level in the short term, with even the risk of a pullback to the 70,000 range. Vigilance against volatility risks is advised.