#大户持仓动态 The bet on the "Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December" on a certain prediction platform has soared to 98%, almost a done deal. The decision will be announced on Friday (December 19), and the window is tight.

Recently, some details in on-chain data are worth noting: large amounts of stablecoins are quietly leaving exchanges, clearly as a preemptive defense; Bitcoin activity has hit a bottleneck at a critical point, with big funds waiting for signals; once the rate hike is confirmed, arbitrage traders are likely to pull back into the yen market, and short-term crypto liquidity may face pressure.

The realistic assessment—if the rate hike materializes, the crypto market will likely experience a wave of emotional correction, especially in small-cap tokens that are sensitive to interest rate changes. However, what I want to say is that this downturn may not be a bad thing. During a bull market cycle, macroeconomic negative news often evolve into a "sell first, then rebound" scenario, and it all depends on who dares to buy the bottom in panic.

On-chain data and news sentiment are both indispensable. Relying solely on news can lead to being misled, and only watching K-line charts can cause you to miss the bigger picture. Overlayting both perspectives allows the market's framework to reveal its true form.

Suggestion: Lower leverage by one level, set stop-loss points in advance, and wait for the market to establish its own direction before entering. Events with clear expectations like this often produce counter-movements.

Stay alert, but don't overreact. Keep ammunition ready—opportunities often appear during the most panic-driven moments. $ETH