Bitwise 2026 Top 10 Crypto Market Predictions: Bull Market Continues, Bitcoin Will Break Four-Year Cycle and Reach New All-Time High

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote in his forecast report that the current bullish trends in the crypto market—ranging from institutional adoption to regulatory advancements—are too strong to be suppressed in the long term.

The forecast predicts that by 2026, Bitcoin will break free from its traditional four-year cycle constraints and potentially reach new all-time highs.

01 Core Forecast Overview

As a leading global digital asset manager managing over $15 billion in client assets, Bitwise Asset Management’s annual forecasts serve as an important industry indicator.

On December 16, 2025, the company released its top ten crypto market predictions for 2026, depicting an optimistic outlook of accelerated institutional capital inflows and increasingly mature market structures.

These predictions are not mere speculation but are based on deep insights into market structural shifts. Bitwise believes that the forces driving previous four-year cycles—such as Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and leverage-driven booms and busts—have significantly weakened in the current cycle.

02 Full Analysis of the Top Ten Predictions

Bitwise’s ten predictions cover multiple dimensions including market structure, asset performance, regulatory trends, and institutional adoption. Here is a summary of their core points:

03 End of Market Cycles and New Beginnings

The most striking view in Bitwise’s report is that Bitcoin’s decade-long four-year market cycle may have become invalid. Historically, after rallies in 2024 and 2025, 2026 was expected to be a correction year.

However, Bitwise’s analysis team believes this traditional cycle is disintegrating. The core logic supporting this judgment is that the forces driving past cycles have fundamentally changed.

“The impact of Bitcoin halving events is diminishing; we expect interest rates to decline rather than rise in 2026; additionally, after record liquidations in October 2025, reduced leverage and improved regulation lower the likelihood of a major market crash,” explained Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise.

A more critical driver is the influx of institutional capital. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional funds have begun systematically flowing into crypto. Bitwise anticipates that as major wealth management platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch start allocating assets in 2026, this trend will accelerate significantly.

04 Volatility Turning Point and Institutionalization Process

For a long time, “excessive volatility” has been one of the main criticisms from traditional investors regarding Bitcoin. Bitwise’s second major prediction directly addresses this pain point: Bitcoin’s volatility in 2026 will be lower than that of tech giant Nvidia.

In fact, this trend has already begun to emerge in 2025. Data shows that throughout 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility was already below Nvidia’s stock. The continued decline in volatility reflects a fundamental reduction in Bitcoin’s investment risk and the diversification of investor base brought by ETFs and other traditional investment tools.

Bitwise expects ETFs to purchase over 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in 2026, as institutional demand growth outpaces new asset creation. This structural supply-demand imbalance could serve as a solid foundation for price appreciation.

05 Credibility of Historical Predictions

Before looking ahead, reviewing past forecasts is an effective way to assess their credibility. Coincidentally, industry media recently conducted a “retrospective” on several institutions’ predictions made at the end of 2024 for the previous year.

The results showed that Bitwise’s top ten predictions for 2025, made at the end of 2024, had an accuracy rate of about 50%. Its strengths mainly lay in accurate judgments on policy and institutional adoption.

For example, Bitwise successfully predicted Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500, the arrival of the crypto IPO boom, and an increase in the number of countries holding Bitcoin. However, its specific price point predictions (such as Bitcoin reaching $200,000) were overly optimistic.

This retrospective reveals a pattern: predictions about policy and trend directions tend to be more reliable than specific price forecasts. This enhances the credibility of Bitwise’s 2026 trend-based judgments such as “accelerated institutional entry” and “regulatory progress,” which are of higher value.

06 Ecosystem Prosperity in All Aspects

Beyond Bitcoin, Bitwise’s report is optimistic about the broader crypto ecosystem. It specifically highlights that if the US’s CLARITY Act passes, Ethereum and Solana will hit new all-time highs in 2026.

The law aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and will serve as a major legitimacy catalyst. Meanwhile, the report predicts the US will launch over 100 crypto-linked ETFs, far exceeding the current number, offering investors unprecedented diversification.

Another interesting prediction involves “Onchain Vaults,” also known as “ETF 2.0.” Bitwise expects their assets under management to double by 2026. These blockchain-based, transparent, and programmable investment tools represent the next generation of financial infrastructure innovation.

Risk Warning and Conclusion

Bitwise attaches important disclaimers to all its predictions, emphasizing that these views are not investment guarantees and depend on many complex factors. Cryptocurrency investing itself carries high risks, including sharp price swings, market manipulation, and cybersecurity threats.

For investors aiming to position in the crypto market by 2026, Bitwise’s forecasts provide a data-driven and professional analysis roadmap. They strongly point to a key theme: the irreversible institutionalization of cryptocurrencies is reshaping the entire market’s operational logic.

With traditional financial giants entering the space, clearer regulatory environments, and innovative products emerging, the crypto market in 2026 may look different from any previous cycle—more stable, more mature, and more integrated with the global financial system.

Markets are always uncertain, but well-prepared participants are more likely to seize the next opportunity.