#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 U.S. November employment data shows a mixed picture, with the market briefly excited about a potential rate cut.

Non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 jobs, seemingly exceeding the expected 50,000, but the details tell a different story. The unemployment rate jumped unceremoniously to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. Regarding wages, the average hourly wage grew at an annual rate of only 3.5%, and monthly growth was just 0.1%, both below expectations.

Looking ahead, October data was even more disappointing—non-farm payrolls fell by 105,000 month-over-month. The reason? Over 150,000 federal employees accepted buyouts, which lowered the overall number. Meanwhile, retail sales showed no growth this month, and data from the previous two months was revised downward.

After hearing these figures, the market immediately started betting on a rate cut. The probability of a rate cut in January next year jumped from 22% to 31%. Investors now expect two rate cuts in 2026, with a total of 58 basis points possibly cut next year.

Following the data release, the US dollar index fell below 98, gold spot prices surged, and non-US currencies generally appreciated. Funds are being re-priced.

The rise in the unemployment rate was actually anticipated within the industry. White House officials waved it off, saying this change "is not statistically significant." Analysts also pointed out that while the unemployment rate increased, labor force participation was also rising, which isn't necessarily bad news. Additionally, when combining data from August and September, revisions lowered the figure by 33,000.

Data from the Federal Reserve indicates that private sector employment has been growing at an average of 44,000 jobs per month over the past six months, the lowest level since the post-pandemic recovery began. The precise November unemployment rate was 4.573%, approaching the ceiling previously forecasted by Powell.

On the same day, the ADP weekly report also signaled that private sector hiring might be rebounding, though this is preliminary data and still needs confirmation. CNBC's analysis suggests that the labor market is currently characterized by "few hires and few layoffs," with the Fed torn between stabilizing employment and controlling inflation. The slowdown in wage growth actually supports the view that labor costs are not the fundamental driver of inflation.

Rate strategists believe that this non-farm payroll report isn't particularly strong; with wage growth at a new low in this cycle, the Fed could still continue easing policies, but it depends on how December data turns out. The current data trend is unclear, and long-term interest rates are likely to fluctuate within a range.