Market Intelligence Brief: Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 98%, essentially aligning with market expectations. The decision will be officially announced this Friday (December 19), with a tight timeframe and clear signals.

Several on-chain details are worth noting. Recently, some large stablecoins have accelerated their flow from exchanges to wallet addresses, which usually indicates that funds are preemptively positioning to hedge risks. Meanwhile, activity on the Bitcoin network at key price levels has shown obvious stagnation signs, reflecting that large capital is in a wait-and-see mode. If Japan indeed initiates an interest rate hike cycle, arbitrage funds are likely to accelerate their return to the domestic market, potentially putting short-term liquidity pressure on the crypto market.

From a market sentiment perspective, if the rate hike is confirmed, the crypto market could easily experience a wave of emotional downturns, with altcoins that are more sensitive to interest rates likely to be hit first. However, there is a key judgment—falling does not necessarily mean disaster. In a bull market environment, macro negative news often follows a "kill first, then rally" rhythm. The critical question is whether you dare to buy the dip when the market is in panic.

At this stage of market development, high-profile events often tend to lead to expectation reversals. The higher the transparency of the news, the greater the probability of contrarian movements. Strategic advice: First, proactively reduce leverage to leave enough risk buffers; second, set price alerts at key support levels to avoid being caught off guard by sudden volatility; third, don’t rush to bet, let the market establish its direction first before making decisions.

The core logic at this timing is: news is just a catalyst; the real driver of the trend is the true capital movement on the on-chain data. Only by combining these two dimensions can you see clearly and hold steady. Stay calm, prepare your ammunition, and if a correction opportunity truly arises, that will be a serious entry signal worth paying attention to.