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Last night, the US employment and consumption data both "missed the mark," and the market reaction was quite interesting.

First, let's talk about the unemployment rate. In November, it jumped directly to 4.6%, a number that hasn't been seen in recent years. Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs, which looks to have exceeded expectations, but the growth rate is clearly slowing down—the employment market's momentum is indeed easing.

What’s more concerning is the consumption side. The retail data for October showed a month-over-month change of zero, failing to even meet market expectations. What does this mean? People are really starting to tighten their wallets.

Once the data was released, the market immediately responded. Expectations for rate cuts surged, US stock futures turned higher, and the dollar fell below the 98 mark. The euro and pound strengthened accordingly, and gold also moved higher. According to the latest CME data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January have clearly stepped up a notch.

In simple terms: with both employment and consumption indicators weakening simultaneously, the market interprets this as a sign that economic growth momentum is in recession. The signals for policy shifts are becoming increasingly clear, and investors are betting that the Fed will loosen monetary policy more quickly.

The real focus is still ahead. How inflation data will trend and how the Fed will respond are the key factors that will determine the subsequent market direction. This is just the beginning.