The policy direction of the Bank of Japan is becoming a focal point in the global markets. Recent discussions about interest rate hikes frequently appear in the news, and behind this is not just a simple economic decision but a complex policy game.

Once the expectation of a rate hike is confirmed, the consequences will be straightforward: cheap capital will accelerate its withdrawal from emerging markets and high-risk assets. The seemingly massive liquidity pool in the crypto market is actually quite fragile in the face of a reversal in global capital flows. In past rounds of central bank policy shifts, we have seen similar stories—hot money rapidly freezing in a loose environment, leading to increased market volatility.

The logic here is not complicated: when global interest rates rise, investors are no longer chasing high-risk, high-reward coins but are seeking safer asset allocations. Institutional investors tend to move faster, while retail investors react more slowly. By the time you realize the trend has shifted, the major capital has already been deployed.

The key is to recognize the current situation. The market always operates under certain rules, which are determined by macro policies, capital flows, risk appetite, and other factors. Technical and fundamental analysis are important, but policy impacts are often the most direct. Staying alert, monitoring central bank actions, and managing risks well are the ways to survive longer in this market.