Crypto asset management firm Bitwise recently put forward an interesting view: Bitcoin may reach a new high in 2026, and the old pattern of "a cycle every four years" might need to be rewritten.

What is the basis for this judgment? The underlying logic is actually quite clear. The main pillars that have historically influenced Bitcoin cycles—halving cycles, interest rate environments, and market leverage—are each experiencing a decline in their driving forces. The incentive effect brought by each halving is diminishing, which is an objective law. At the same time, if rate cut expectations are confirmed and regulatory frameworks become more transparent, the market’s leverage risk has significantly decreased compared to before. All these factors are changing the market’s risk structure.

What is the real variable? After the approval of spot ETFs, the continuous deployment of institutional funds. This is not retail speculation, but the entry of the professional players. The incremental long-term capital often drives assets out of more stable and sustained upward cycles, rather than the past "roller coaster" style extreme volatility.

For participants, the strategy is actually quite straightforward. Don’t pay too much attention to short-term price fluctuations; the core is to grasp the trend. If you have the capacity, set a plan and build positions gradually, but forget about leveraging operations. History always goes like this: the market quietly grows amid skepticism, only reaching the end during widespread frenzy. Hold onto spot holdings and be patient—that’s the winning approach.