#非农数据超预期 Mixed Non-Farm Payrolls: November Unemployment Rate Hits Four-Year High, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise

U.S. November non-farm payroll data showed divergence, with seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increasing by 64,000, surpassing expectations of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The annual and monthly growth rates of average hourly wages were 3.5% and 0.1%, respectively, both below expectations.
In October, non-farm employment dropped by 105,000 month-on-month, far exceeding the expected decline, mainly due to over 150,000 federal employees accepting buyouts and resignations. Meanwhile, retail sales showed zero growth month-on-month, below expectations and revised downward from the previous period.
After the data release, market expectations for rate cuts intensified, with the probability of a rate cut in January rising from 22% to 31%. It is expected that there will be two rate cuts by 2026, totaling a 58 basis point reduction next year. Financial markets experienced significant volatility; the dollar index fell below 98 before rebounding, spot gold surged in the short term, and non-dollar currencies generally appreciated.
Regarding the rising unemployment rate, industry insiders had issued early warnings, and White House officials stated that this change is “statistically insignificant.” Analysts pointed out that the increase in the unemployment rate was accompanied by a rebound in labor force participation, which is not necessarily bad news. Additionally, the combined non-farm payroll data for August and September was revised downward by 33,000. The “Fed whisperer” mentioned that private sector job additions averaged 44,000 over the past six months, the lowest since the post-pandemic restart cycle. The precise November unemployment rate was 4.573%, approaching the upper limit previously forecasted by Powell.
On the same day, the ADP weekly report indicated that private sector hiring might rebound, but this data is preliminary and may be revised later. CNBC analysis stated that the labor market remains in a “low hiring, low layoffs” pattern. The Fed’s policy decisions face a dilemma between maintaining employment and controlling inflation, and the slowdown in wages supports the view that the labor market is not the root cause of inflation.
Rate strategists believe that this non-farm report is not strongly indicative of strength, as wage growth hit the lowest level in this cycle. The possibility of continued easing by the Fed remains, but further data in December needs to be observed. Currently, the data lacks a clear trend, and long-term interest rates are likely to fluctuate within a range.