#美联储降息 A disturbing data point has emerged—In November 2025, the US unemployment rate suddenly jumped to 4.6%. How alarming is this number? It’s the highest since September 2021, setting a record for over four years. We were hoping the job market would continue to stabilize, but instead, it delivered a heavy blow to the market.

Looking back over these four years, the US employment market has actually been on a recovery path. After the pandemic, the unemployment rate steadily declined, remaining at relatively low levels, becoming a major driver of economic recovery. But now? This stable situation has been broken.

What’s behind these numbers? A lot of anxiety. Manufacturing, retail, the big hiring sectors, are starting to cut back on recruitment. News of layoffs from companies is frequently reported, and new job openings simply can’t keep up. What does this mean for ordinary workers? Jobs are harder to find, income stability decreases, and consumer confidence is cooling.

This data is even more complex for the Federal Reserve. Continuing to tighten policies to control inflation could further suppress the economy, and the unemployment rate might rise again; shifting to easing measures to stimulate employment could cause inflation to rebound. Both options are challenging.

Currently, the market is closely watching upcoming employment reports and policy signals—will the unemployment rate peak at 4.6% then start to decline, or will it continue to worsen? This will influence the Fed’s next move and directly impact the pricing of risk assets in the capital markets. Everything is still in the stage of waiting for validation.