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Pledge one crypto to borrow another
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Customized wealth management empowers your assets growth
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Customized asset management to grow your digital assets
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Top asset management team helps you profit without hassle
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Stake cryptos to earn in PoS products
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Use USDT/USDC to mint GUSD for treasury-level yields
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The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2026. What new opportunities will 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As the Federal Reserve completes its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75%, market focus has shifted to 2026.
Although the median forecast in the Fed’s dot plot indicates only one more rate cut in 2026 (25 basis points), the interest rate futures market still expects two cuts in 2026, totaling approximately 58 basis points.
01 Divergence in Rate Cut Expectations
After the December Fed meeting, the forecast differences between policymakers and economic observers drew attention. The dot plot shows that most Fed officials expect only one rate cut in 2026.
However, financial markets hold a different view, with market pricing indicating investors expect a cumulative 58 basis points of rate cuts next year, equivalent to two standard cuts.
Goldman Sachs’s more optimistic forecast expects this easing cycle to extend into 2026, with the federal funds rate potentially falling to 3% or lower. This prediction assumes inflation pressures ease mildly and signs of labor market softening increase.
02 Shift in Rate Cut Logic
The rationale for the Fed restarting rate cuts in 2025 has shifted from inflation to employment. Although inflation remains above the 2% target, the adverse effects of slowing employment growth are more prominent.
The U.S. unemployment rate has risen from 4% in January to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021.
Josh Schiffrin, Chief Strategist at Goldman Sachs Global Banking and Markets, pointed out that Fed Chair Powell recently signaled clearly: structural changes in the labor market are drawing high attention from policymakers. Employment data in the coming months will be key in determining whether to restart rate cuts.
03 Divergence in Global Central Bank Policies
Globally, major central banks are diverging in their policy paths. Unlike the Fed’s rate cut trajectory, the Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continued rate hikes.
The European Central Bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 2%, while the Bank of England may follow the Fed’s lead and cut rates.
Emerging market economies are also adopting different policies. Turkey’s central bank announced another rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate by 150 basis points to 38%; Brazil’s central bank maintained its high rate at 15%, remaining hawkish.
04 Impact of Rate Cuts on Various Assets
Historically, Fed rate cut cycles have had varied effects on different assets.
For the U.S. dollar index, its movement is not strongly correlated with rate cuts but depends more on interest rate differentials and economic strength between the U.S. and other economies. The dollar weakened in 2025 partly due to rate cuts, but also due to economic slowdown and declining dollar asset credibility.
Gold may benefit from moderate rate cuts and risks to Fed independence. Although U.S. Treasury yields have limited room to fall, if Fed independence weakens, concerns over U.S. fiscal outlook and dollar credibility could continue to boost gold.
For the RMB exchange rate, resilience is expected in 2026. Factors supporting the RMB include strong export performance, easing trade tensions, and rising attractiveness of RMB assets.
05 Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets
In a context of moderate dollar liquidity easing, global capital liquidity patterns may change. As a liquidity-sensitive asset class, the crypto market could face new opportunities and challenges.
Divergence in monetary policies among major central banks, especially between the Fed and others, may intensify capital flows. Some investors seeking higher yields or safe havens might flow into cryptocurrencies.
Leadership changes at the Fed could also introduce uncertainty. U.S. President Trump has indicated that Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is the top candidate for the next Fed chair. Changes in policymakers could influence future monetary policy directions.
06 Digital Asset Dynamics on Gate Platform
As of December 17, 2025, influenced by expectations of Fed rate cuts, digital assets on Gate.io show the following dynamics:
Bitcoin (BTC), after a short-term correction, has shown resilience supported by improved macro liquidity expectations. Ethereum (ETH) and other major smart contract platform tokens have seen increased trading activity as market risk appetite gradually recovers.
In the context of rate cut expectations, tokens related to real-world assets (RWA), which are closely linked to the real economy, have attracted attention. Meanwhile, volatility in traditional financial markets may prompt some investors to use stablecoins as short-term hedges or transitional assets.
Please note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all price data are subject to real-time changes. The above observations are only at a specific point in time and do not constitute investment advice. Please check the latest real-time prices on Gate.io and make independent judgments.
07 Outlook for 2026 Rate Cuts
Although the Fed’s dot plot indicates only one rate cut in 2026, weak employment data and relatively stable inflation may lead the Fed to cut twice, with the pace concentrated in the first half of the year.
Ruo Ziheng, Director of Research at Yuekai Securities, believes that under the baseline scenario, the Fed will still cut twice in 2026, lowering the federal funds rate to around 3%. The main reasons include stabilizing inflation, higher risks of employment slowdown, and potential White House intervention tilting policy toward easing.
The pace of rate cuts in 2026 remains uncertain, with a higher likelihood of realization in the first half. As the positive effects of rate cuts on the economy become evident and employment stabilizes, the Fed may pause rate cuts.
Future Outlook
As market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 gradually align with the Fed’s dot plot, global capital is quietly reallocating. Goldman Sachs forecasts the federal funds rate could fall below 3%, while Morgan Stanley believes the Fed has entered a “wait-and-see” mode.
As a front line for global capital flows, Bitcoin prices on Gate.io fluctuate with each U.S. employment report. Traders closely watching Fed officials’ speeches and inflation data are already adjusting their portfolio weights.
Whether the Fed cuts once or twice, the environment of global liquidity is quietly changing.