#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Last night, when the non-farm payroll data was released, the unemployment rate of 4.6% far exceeded expectations. This thing is quite intense. The employment growth was not as optimistic as expected, and the market responded with a sharp decline, another wave of selling.

Why do people always take unemployment data as a barometer? Frankly, when the unemployment rate rises, it’s more than just an economic number — it’s a pressure gauge for the entire financial system. Once the labor market starts to loosen, the Federal Reserve has to change its script: from firmly controlling inflation to protecting economic growth and preventing recession spread.

Looking at historical patterns makes it clear. Since the 2008 financial crisis, each economic cycle follows this routine: when the unemployment rate crosses the historical trend line, the Fed initiates a trilogy — cutting interest rates, expanding its balance sheet through quantitative easing, and relaxing forward guidance to create a loose environment.

Interestingly, these shifts don’t directly push asset prices higher. On the contrary, markets often first panic and sell off, deleverage. But when everyone realizes liquidity has bottomed out and risks have been released, Bitcoin usually follows with the next wave of gains. At this point in time, it’s worth pondering.