#BinanceABCs The Subtle Game Between Federal Reserve Policies and the Crypto Market

Recently, interesting contrasts have emerged in US non-farm payroll data: rising unemployment rates usually signal economic weakness, and logically, US stocks and Bitcoin should be under pressure. But the reality is quite the opposite — the market has not only remained resilient but has even slightly risen.

The logic behind this is straightforward: the current market has already bet everything on one story — an interest rate cut is imminent. Bad data are no longer interpreted as risk signals but as evidence that the "Federal Reserve must act." The softer the economic data, the more traders believe rates will fall, creating a feedback loop that produces a distorted "bad news is good news" phenomenon. In essence, the market no longer cares about the health of the economy itself; the only question is the direction of monetary policy.

Japan’s rate hike story, on the other hand, is entirely different.

The news of the Bank of Japan ending negative interest rates has long been priced into the market. This shift has been brewing for months, and all participants are aware that this step was coming. When expectations turn into an actual announcement, it’s easy to fall into the trap of "good news is bad news" — with no new surprises, the market naturally remains flat.

What truly matters is not the size of the first rate hike but whether Japan will continue to deepen its tightening. If this is merely an isolated test, the market impact will be limited; but if rate hikes continue, it could create a long-term pressure akin to "boiling a frog slowly." This gradual shift in monetary policy could be even more damaging to the crypto market. The current market has already digested the story of the "first rate hike," and the next phase depends on the continued direction of policy.

$BTC, $ETH, $SOL and other mainstream assets are seeking balance amid this macro game. Investors need not only to track data releases but also to understand how market psychology is constantly re-pricing this information.