The US dollar continues to depreciate, and gold is defying the trend and strengthening—on the surface, 2026 should be a bull market. However, major technical indicators for BTC are signaling the opposite.

These types of indicators never lie. Looking back at the market from late 2021 to early 2022: after BTC surged to a historical high of 69,000, the market was still oscillating above 50,000, and many investors still hoped for a continued bull run. But the turning point came very quickly—geopolitical tensions suddenly escalated in February, and the market rapidly entered a main downtrend. You’ve seen the subsequent movements: sharp declines, rebounds back to 0.618, another sharp decline, and then a rebound confirming 0.618. The entire process seems like a precisely scripted plan.

Interestingly, why did these key variables happen to appear at that specific time? It’s not a coincidence. The four-year bull-bear cycle had already marked 2022 as a global bear market. The monthly death cross was formed as early as November 2021, and the overall trend was already very clear.

So the current dilemma is: many negative factors are still in the潜伏期, not fully recognized by the market. Don’t overestimate the situation just because of a short-term rebound. Instead of blindly chasing gains, it’s better to admit—current characteristics are indeed bearish (based on the trend pattern), and a more conservative approach can help you survive longer. This is much more reliable than reckless actions.