Recently, the energy market has been stirring again. The US government’s sanctions on Venezuela are becoming increasingly severe, escalating from simple economic sanctions to blocking oil tankers, freezing transportation channels, and even labeling the local regime as a terrorist organization. This combination of measures immediately caused a stir in the crude oil market.

On the surface, Venezuela’s crude oil exports have long been suppressed by sanctions, with actual daily exports falling below 500,000 barrels, accounting for less than 0.5% of global crude oil trade. Based on this figure, the direct impact on global supply is actually limited. But market reactions are often not so rational.

Why is that? The key lies in the psychological premium of geopolitical risk. Investors see not just the current export volume, but the underlying policy signals—America has already used this sanctions toolbox, and who can guarantee that the next target won’t be an oil-producing country they care about? This concern instantly transforms into an upward expectation for oil prices.

Especially Brent crude, which is the benchmark for global oil pricing, is far more sensitive to geopolitical conflicts than WTI. WTI mainly reflects supply and demand within the US, while Brent serves as the global pricing indicator. Any disturbance in the Caribbean transportation routes can directly influence its direction. Now that the US has directly blocked the transportation choke points, the market immediately starts pondering: Will the safety of oil transportation in the Caribbean become an issue? Once this thought arises, short-term volatility naturally increases.

Many people are still debating data discrepancies, but little do they realize that the market’s biggest fear is uncertainty. Subtle changes in supply expectations are enough to support the medium-term trend of oil prices, and that is precisely the current situation. The geopolitical risk premium has become the main driver pushing up oil prices, and in the short term, Brent crude is likely to see a significant jump.

That said, the long-term direction of oil prices still depends on the fundamental supply and demand. Short-term emotional fluctuations are ultimately fleeting; as long as the global economic growth, Federal Reserve policies, and OPEC production decisions remain unchanged fundamentally, the medium- to long-term trend of the oil market has an anchor. The current geopolitical turbulence more provides the market with a short-term trading opportunity rather than altering the fundamental logic of the energy market.