The US labor market in November sent out a dangerous signal. The unemployment rate suddenly surged to 4.6%, reaching the highest level since September 2021, breaking the steady momentum of the job market over the past few years. This is not just a string of numbers but a shadow on the road to economic recovery.

Remember the years after the pandemic? The US job market was once thriving, with unemployment steadily declining and remaining low for a long time, becoming a pillar supporting the entire economic recovery. Now, this stability has suddenly been broken. What does it mean?

The story behind it is very realistic: hiring freezes, waves of layoffs, job vacancies. Traditional employment sectors like manufacturing and retail are experiencing noticeable contractions. The pace of new job creation can no longer keep up with the demand in the labor market.

The impact on ordinary people is direct—finding a job has become more difficult, income stability has decreased, and wallets have naturally shrunk. Consumer confidence has also weakened accordingly. This shift in expectations will gradually permeate the entire economy’s capillaries.

For the Federal Reserve, this number creates a dilemma. Continuing to tighten policies to curb inflation might further suppress employment; shifting to easing to stimulate jobs risks reigniting inflation. A difficult situation of choosing between two unfavorable options is now in front of us.

Now, all eyes in the market are focused on one question: will this 4.6% peak reverse itself? How will subsequent employment data evolve? How will government policy preferences adjust? These are still unknowns. But what is certain is that this data will serve as an important reference for market analysis in the coming period.