#大户持仓动态 🔥Unemployment rate in the US breaks 4.6%, is a market turnaround coming?

Last night, when the non-farm payroll data was released, the US unemployment rate jumped directly to 4.6%, far exceeding expectations. Although the employment data looks good, it triggered a wave of selling—this seems counterintuitive, but the underlying logic is quite clear.

Why can the unemployment rate serve as a leading indicator of liquidity?

In simple terms, it’s not just economic data; it’s also a signal light for the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. Once the labor market clearly softens, the Fed’s focus shifts from "strictly controlling inflation" to "stabilizing growth and managing risks."

Over the past ten years, every time the unemployment rate broke through a trend line, the Fed followed a routine: first cutting interest rates to release liquidity, then initiating balance sheet expansion (QE), and finally building expectations of easing to boost risk assets.

Currently, the market may still experience a round of leverage squeeze and re-pricing. But as long as liquidity expectations bottom out, crypto assets often lead the way with a rally. Bitcoin tends to react first.

So this correction might just be the prelude to new opportunities.