There has been a consistent pattern being tested: every time the Japanese yen raises interest rates, Bitcoin tends to undergo a wave of correction. With the rate hike scheduled for the 19th again, I am a bit worried.

Looking back at these data, the pattern is actually quite clear. On March 19th last year, the first rate hike, Bitcoin dropped from 67,600 directly to 56,500, a decline of 8% that day. Although there was a rebound afterward, it never surpassed that level again. Then on July 31st, during the second rate hike, Bitcoin was around 66,169, then gradually declined, finally crashing to 49,050, a total drop of 34%.

The most recent example is even more severe—on January 24th, Bitcoin had already surged to 104,000, approaching a new all-time high. But as soon as the rate hike signal appeared, it was hammered down to 74,420, a decline of 40%.

Three rate hikes, three similar patterns. An interest rate increase in the yen means higher costs for arbitrage trading in Japan. Funds borrowing yen to leverage long positions face pressure, ultimately leading to capital withdrawal, with Bitcoin being the first to be affected. Although this isn't the only influencing factor, the correlation is too obvious.

So now, with the 19th approaching again, it's better to be cautious in the short term. Not that it will definitely fall, but given this historical pattern, a defensive stance might be more prudent.