#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The Explosion of Prediction Markets: The Deep Logic Behind Opinion's Trading Volume Surpassing 6.4 Billion

A recent report from an on-chain data platform has gone viral. The Opinion prediction market project hit a daily trading volume of 200 million, and within just 50 days of launch, the total trading volume exceeded 6.4 billion — this is not just a numerical growth but also reflects a subtle shift in the entire market structure.

What does this mean? The traditional financial concepts of inflation expectations and interest rate policies are being re-priced within the crypto ecosystem through on-chain assets. In other words, the future trading is no longer just about the price of a certain token but about direct pricing power over Federal Reserve decisions and central bank policies. This is akin to turning macroeconomic indicators into tradable financial products — opening a new battlefield for professional institutions in the core territory of traditional finance.

But where is the problem? On the surface, it appears to be "decentralized democracy," but in reality, institutional-grade capital is redefining the game rules through liquidity. Behind the surge in trading volume, professional traders are using algorithms and large capital to anticipate retail traders’ expectations. Are you jumping in to chase the hype? Then you become the side quantified in the data.

For participants, it’s necessary to rethink strategies:

**First, understand the fundamental logic.** Clarify the asset anchoring mechanism of products like Opinion, the authenticity of data sources, and the potential for manipulation. Betting without understanding the underlying principles is no different from gambling.

**Second, control your position size.** Use minimal costs to sense the market during the early trend, keeping trial-and-error costs manageable. This way, even if your judgment is wrong, your core assets remain safe.

**Finally, supplement your knowledge base.** Simply looking at candlestick charts is no longer enough. Macro indicators like Federal Reserve meetings, non-farm payroll data, and CPI indexes have become trading benchmarks. Investors who lack macroeconomic understanding are destined to be long-term victims of being harvested.

The market never sympathizes with regretful emotions; it only rewards deeper cognition. While most people are still focused on price fluctuations, true participants are already positioning themselves for the next paradigm shift. $ETH