#数字资产市场洞察 Ethereum Mid-December Trend Observation and Trading Ideas

Last week's short position strategy successfully took profit, and I pointed out a key turning point at that time — Ethereum shifted from an upward channel to a downward channel, and the current trend remains weak.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart is the most intuitive. In the past two days, the candlesticks have shown oscillating downward movement. After a sharp plunge on December 15, the price has been recovering, but the rebound strength is clearly insufficient. Each rally is met with selling pressure, which is a typical sign of weakness. The daily chart shows consecutive bearish candles, and the 4-hour highs are gradually declining while lows are continuously making new lows.

The MACD indicator has already fallen below the zero line, with the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum. The fast and slow lines are still diverging downward, indicating a high probability of further breakdown in the short term. The RSI is around 35, not yet in the oversold zone but very close, suggesting market sentiment is fragile and there may still be room for adjustment. The three moving averages (7, 30, 120) are all aligned in a bearish formation, with the price firmly below these averages, especially the 7-day moving average acting as a clear resistance at the current level.

Volume is worth noting: on December 15, during the sharp decline, there was a surge in selling volume. However, subsequent rebounds have been accompanied by decreasing volume, indicating a decline in participation from retail and institutional traders. The 4-hour volume fluctuates significantly, but during rebounds, the volume is always insufficient, and buying strength remains weak.

Trading suggestions:
If Ethereum rebounds back to the 2930-2950 range, consider entering a light short position. The targets below are sequentially 2890 → 2860 → 2820. If the 2800 level is broken, the next target is around 2720.

Markets change rapidly, so these analyses are time-sensitive. Specific operations should be adjusted flexibly based on real-time market conditions.