#大户持仓动态 $AAVE

Spot AAVE Analysis Notes 20251217 13:00 UTC

Key Points
AAVE has recently shown both positive signals and hidden risks — regulatory developments look promising with the implementation of the new rules and the 2026 big plan, but internal conflicts over profit distribution are quite concerning. Coupled with technical downside, the short-term market outlook is not very optimistic.

Positive Aspects
1. Regulatory Clarity: The SEC officially ended a four-year investigation without taking any enforcement actions, which is a significant positive for DeFi platforms, at least alleviating some worries.

2. Clear Development Plan: The CEO outlined the key focus areas for 2026 — launching Aave V4 applications and institutional-grade RWA business, aiming to expand lending volume and attract more users with a clear strategy.

3. Product Moves: AAVE will integrate a dual investment product on 20251218 at 08:00 UTC, which will help increase user engagement and platform usability.

Risks
1. Internal Governance Drama: Disputes within the DAO over profit sharing have become intense. Aave Labs has decided to replace the exchange infrastructure, which could result in transferring $10 million annually from the DAO treasury. How this will be accounted for remains uncertain.

2. Technical Weakness: In the past 24 hours, AAVE has fallen by 1.57%. The short-term EMA has crossed below the long-term EMA, indicating a clear bearish signal.

3. Diminishing Momentum: MACD continues to decline, with the histogram negative, and RSI6 has dropped below 40. This combination of indicators suggests bearish momentum is building, with significant selling pressure.

Community Sentiment
Regulatory clarity and the roadmap have generated some anticipation, but internal disagreements also raise concerns. Market sentiment remains cautious, with a mix of hope and reservation.