Will the November CPI data shake up the market? Maybe not that simple.

Option traders' bets are interesting—they believe the S&P 500 index won't fluctuate more than 0.7% on the day. In other words, the market has already prepared psychologically.

What is the reality? Investors generally think this report might be overestimated. Data quality is controversial, its influence limited, and it might not even be worth paying too much attention to. The Federal Reserve's policy direction in January next year? This CPI report won't change that.

To truly trigger a market rally, CPI data needs to significantly beat expectations—that threshold is indeed there. But the Fed's attention has long been distracted. They also pay close attention to downside risks in the employment market, and some traders even think the focus is roughly the same.

There's also an invisible factor: Powell's term only lasts until May next year. The uncertainty about policy stability naturally weakens the weight of a single economic data point.

Plus, seasonal patterns—seeing the stock market approach new highs, everyone is waiting for that traditional bull market cycle to continue. The inflation data on Thursday? It might just be brushed aside like that.