ADA finally broke below my cost basis, proudly joining the ranks of altcoins with unrealized losses.

Currently, only BTC and ETH are still showing profits on my books. If you think about how the crypto market could reach this point in December 2025, it’s quite laughable. Even the more stable and value-investment-oriented old hands are starting to waver in confidence. It’s easy to imagine the level of panic and helplessness in the current market.

Would I sell my altcoins now? Not for the time being. I remain optimistic about my holdings in ETH and ADA. As for the other smaller altcoin positions, since I did my homework before buying, I plan to hold and see how the first quarter of next year’s market develops before adjusting my positions.

Does this mean I lack confidence in future markets? Not at all, because I still believe the four-year cycle will be broken by macroeconomic policies.

In my September article, I mentioned that if ETH couldn’t break the 5000 psychological barrier by November, the market probably wouldn’t perform well. Although I didn’t expect such a poor situation to occur, in the long run, my current large-position holdings and average entry price are not problematic—just that the time horizon will be longer than initially expected. Due to ETF influences, I believe the main altcoins that can be allocated through ETFs will replicate some of BTC and ETH’s movements. That is, during the period before and after ETF approval, the main market players will suppress the spot prices to the lowest levels (referencing ETH’s trend in 2025). As for other small altcoin positions, including the DOGE positions bought in October and November, as long as ADA can return to the 0.6 price range, the current unrealized losses can still be covered.

If I were to liquidate everything now, the account probably wouldn’t see big gains by 2025. But I also understood when I entered the market between July and September 2024 that the market might not make big money if it rises, but if it falls, losses should be limited. It’s just a pity that a year’s worth of capital costs and effort were spent without a clear understanding of the 2025 crypto market. The operations and profits of altcoins have been quite eye-opening.

As always, it’s best for us retail players to allocate 30-50% of our portfolio in BTC. When the market is bad, try not to leave entirely. Those with the conditions can open small positions to practice trading skills, review and record more, and for those already resting, find channels to see in-depth industry analysis and interviews. Keep a good mindset and recharge your confidence.

In the past week, I’ve made three short-term long trades with small positions—two were stopped out passively, and one is currently in profit. This again proves the disorder and difficulty of short-term trading. Perhaps it’s due to my personality and ability, but during this oscillating consolidation phase, I still don’t dare to open large positions for swing trading.

My personal understanding is that slow upward movement and slow rise with rapid fall will likely be the norm for most mainstream coins in 2026. Every 5-6 months, there will be some good medium- to long-term swing opportunities. As a primarily spot trader, I need to gradually adapt to this rhythm and change. Because if I want to predict future market trends, without allocating some large positions for swing trading, it’s hard to maximize capital returns—after all, capital has costs. Of course, I’ve had this idea for a long time. After 8 years in the circle, it’s time for old hands to evolve into semi-professional traders.

The hottest recent market topic is Japan’s upcoming interest rate hike decision. I don’t have much insight myself. I looked at a flood of financial commentary videos and articles online today—some are quite far-fetched, some I can understand, but after watching, the anxiety is strong. Yet, when I look at my positions, I don’t know what to do. Should I cut losses? Reduce positions appropriately? Or just wait and see?

There’s a chart circulating online (see Chart 1), showing that after Japan’s previous rate hikes, Bitcoin experienced declines of 23%, 30%, and 31%. This naturally causes concern—if Japan confirms a rate hike tomorrow, will BTC continue to drop over 20%?

I think we should look at the timing of economic events. Simply interpreting news based on numbers can be overly simplistic or even wrong. Attributing the past declines directly to Japan’s rate hikes has obvious logical issues. When considering global liquidity at those times, the declines were more coincidental than causal.

Looking back at historical charts, those so-called “crashes after rate hikes” actually occurred after BTC had experienced a clear rally—either a one-sided surge followed by a correction or a technical adjustment after several weeks of gains.

In this context, a pullback is a high-probability event. More importantly, last year’s Japanese rate hike didn’t trigger enough attention in the crypto space, and the market didn’t price it in advance. So, attributing subsequent declines solely to Japan’s rate hike is essentially reverse causality. Currently, after November 11, the market has experienced over two months of unilateral decline. Given the current macro environment, I believe the marginal impact of Japan’s rate hike has already been digested. Unlike before, this time Japan’s rate hike was almost a “full disclosure,” with extensive coverage by all financial media and personal KOLs.

The news reports that a large amount of funds relying on low-yen interest rates for arbitrage and leverage to long risk assets probably started actively deleveraging and hedging risks earlier. In other words, the risks that could be avoided have already been pre-hedged by the market. Especially with the recent downturn, this sentiment release is a major factor. Therefore, even if Japan officially announces a 0.25% rate hike tomorrow, I don’t think it will cause a new major negative for BTC. Based on technical patterns, even if there’s a retracement, the probability of bouncing back from the 80,000 support level is higher than dropping directly to 70,000 (see Chart 2).

The key data that truly determines the direction of risk assets is still the inflation data released tomorrow. Whether the Fed’s dot plot in 2026 will change, whether they will continue cutting rates in Q1-Q3, and whether they will restart easing measures—all these core events directly affect the real liquidity in the market.

The negative news may soon materialize, or perhaps negative news will turn into positive. The recent movements are unpredictable. Tonight, I will close my short-term longs and redeem all on-chain staked assets to avoid any big surprises. Liquidity in the market is quietly increasing. If inflation cools tomorrow night, based on the four-hour chart patterns and on-chain indicators, I expect BTC to consolidate a bottom and see a significant rebound in about a month (mid-January). This might be the best time for most friends to get off the train.

Recently, it’s worth paying attention to SOL and GT. Over the past week, ETF data shows continuous inflows for SOL, while GT’s daily chart indicates a phase of bottoming, with the price returning to the 2024 highs. From a medium- to long-term perspective, GT in the 8-10 yuan range is quite attractive.

Also, I forgot to mention one thing: if you hold ADA in an O某K account, many accounts received airdrops of the night token last week. I got over 12,400—pretty happy about that. It’s the biggest unexpected windfall I’ve received in this cycle. I don’t know the airdrop rules on GATE; if anyone understands, please let me know ☕#市场触底了吗？