2025-12-17 14:20:32

#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The Truth Behind U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data

Recently, this round of data releases has been quite interesting. The officially announced new employment figures are better and better, but investors seem to be scratching their heads—how much credibility do these numbers really have?

Speaking of which, after the latest round of tariff policies was implemented, there have been voices in the market questioning whether these employment data are truly so optimistic. Some analysts believe that after removing seasonal adjustments, the growth rate of new employment may have already turned negative. This divergence in expectations is causing many traders to reassess the economic fundamentals.

For $BTC and other risk assets, such data reversals often imply a change in liquidity expectations. The market is digesting two possibilities: either the Federal Reserve's policy path will adjust, or the risk of a hard economic landing will increase. Both scenarios have different impacts on the crypto market.

It is worth noting that this data controversy actually reflects the credibility issues of large-scale economic data itself. When employment data shift from expected strong growth to possible negative growth, investors' confidence in the overall macro narrative begins to waver. This will have a very direct impact on market pricing.

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staking_gramps

· 2025-12-19 04:26

Data is just nonsense; seasonally adjusted data suddenly shows negative growth after removal. I've seen this trick too many times. --- Here we go again? Official figures always look good, anyway the retail investors can't understand what seasonally adjusted data is. --- It's all about reversing data to trap retail investors. BTC has long smelled the wind. --- Hard landing or soft landing, anyway my BTC positions are already set up. Just watching the show. --- The credibility issue is well said, but the market still follows this narrative. --- Haha, tired of the expectation gap, now just waiting for the next policy reversal to make a move. --- I don't even trust the non-farm payroll data anymore; it's better to look at on-chain data for more reliability.

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DegenWhisperer

· 2025-12-18 08:16

The data is full of nonsense; seasonal adjustments immediately reveal the truth. How many years have they been playing this trick... Wait, is it a hard landing or a soft landing? Why do these two options affect my positions so much... Starting to doubt the official data again, really experiencing fatigue from the aesthetic... Once liquidity expectations shift, this wave of market trends will need to be reshuffled. It's a bit annoying. What is the truth? Anyway, the data is all fabricated. It's better to trust your own trading system than to believe it.

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DeFiCaffeinator

· 2025-12-17 14:50

The data looks good, but after adjusting for factors, the growth rate turns negative? I really can't quite understand this move. Playing word games again, is there so much water in the non-farm payroll data? Seasonal adjustment seems like just inflating the numbers; can the real situation look good? Hard landing or policy adjustment, both are bombs for the crypto price, choosing either is uncomfortable. That's why I never fully trust official data; in the end, retail investors are the ones who suffer.

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FloorPriceWatcher

· 2025-12-17 14:43

The data looks good, but the key question is: after removing seasonal adjustments, what does it actually show? That's the real point of concern.

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CommunityWorker

· 2025-12-17 14:28

The data looks good, but digging into it reveals it's all just seasonal adjustments... Can this time really show negative growth? I'm quite looking forward to it. It feels like this employment report is a psychological test for $BTC—either the Federal Reserve takes a breather or there's a hard landing... Both outcomes are quite exciting. I can't figure out whether the officials are genuinely optimistic or just fooling themselves. Anyway, I don't trust these shiny numbers. After the tariffs are implemented, looking at these employment figures still feels a bit off? The logic just doesn't add up. The most painful part of the data controversy is—when will we be able to trust economic data?

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ETHmaxi_NoFilter

· 2025-12-17 14:28

Numbers are all deceptive; those who only look at surface data should reflect on their own trading logic.

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